It’s been a season of stunning upheaval in the EPL. Leicester City have sat proudly astride the Premier League in November and boast the most lethal striker in the division in Jamie "chat s*** get banged" Vardy. The Chelsea team that won the league at a canter last season have become so accustomed to the bottom half of the Premier League table that they’re thinking of releasing a Drake-inspired charity single called "Started At The Top, Now We’re Here (In 14th)." But at least in this swirling maelstrom of change, we can rely on one anchor of stability: Arsenal are fourth.
"We've done it again lads!" via GIPHY
It wasn’t meant to be this way: Petr Cech was the final piece in the puzzle, Arsene Wenger so confident in his squad building that no outfield player was deemed necessary. After consecutive FA Cups, this was the squad that could bring home the big one, the EPL title. But, as inevitably as outrage over Starbucks’ Christmas cup designs or vegans being smug, Arsenal’s title hopes are fading amid an injury crisis.
But this year, an extra element of disappointment has been added to that heady mix of shattered dreams and endless frustration: despite being handed a simple enough Champions League group, Arsenal have contrived to leave themselves needing a 2-0 win (or any win where they score three goals) away at Olympiakos, where they have never previously won. Wow.
The thing is, with victory absolutely not guaranteed, the repercussions of failure are enormous. Because Arsenal would then finish third, which would send them straight into the Europa League. This doesn’t sound so bad, but then you look at the clubs who have been involved in the latter stages of the one trophy that no-one wants to win: BBC Sport's study of 33 club campaigns from 2004-05 shows an average 2.3 place league fall when balancing Europa League demands.
The stakes are very high then for Arsenal. With a knackered Alexis Sanchez and Santi Cazorla, half a team missing through injury and indifferent recent form, the omens aren’t great.
There are very few pundits who would give Arsenal a serious chance of winning the Champions League, particularly after their humiliation in Munich and Barcelona’s annihilation of Roma, but those extra days of rest that come from a Wednesday fixture in Germany rather than a Thursday one in Azerbaijan could be crucial when it comes to maintaining a credible title push.
It’s difficult to overstate the importance of Dec. 9. The Europa League would not only be a dangerous distraction for the Gunners, but if they follow the average drop in league position identified in the survey, it could be quite a while before they return to European football’s top table. Look at Liverpool: once you’re out, you need one of the best strikers in the world and a turbo-charged campaign to get you back in. Or the Manchester United approach: spend £150M every summer. Neither of those is a particularly attractive proposition. It’s in Arsenal’s hands, but the pressure is firmly on them to deliver.
