The break in football has allowed us to step back and analyze some of the trends that’ve defined the 2019-20 season so far, and there’s nothing more eye-catching than the steep decline of headed goals in the Premier League. According to a recent tactical study, the English top-flight is on course for its fewest headed goals ever in a single season.
Traditionally, headers have represented between 16 and 20 percent of goals scored in the Premier League — this season, that percentage has dropped dramatically to 13.6% (107 headed goals from 784 total).
How do we explain this trend?
The division currently has a couple sides that are particularly averse to crossing the ball in open play, with the best examples being Norwich City and Crystal Palace. There are also the confounding styles of Newcastle United, which employs Joelinton as target man but fails to demonstrate any clear attacking plan, and Watford (at least before the appointment of Nigel Pearson).
However, a propensity for crossing the ball doesn’t necessarily lead to more headed goals, as clearly exemplified by Manchester City. No side crosses the ball more than Pep Guardiola’s men, but they’ve only managed eight headed goals this season.
In the final third, City’s shape becomes a 2-3-5 and it’s the wide players that opposition fullbacks have the most difficult time following. This player often exploits the space behind the wide defender and the final cross is a cutback for a simple tap-in. It’s sweaty. It’s unstoppable.
Liverpool, the club that cross the ball second-most, has scored 15 headed goals this campaign thanks in large part to Virgil van Dijk, who’s got four of them.
Other clubs that’ve remained strong in the air include Burnley (Chris Wood has five) and Everton (Dominic Calvert-Lewin has four), but then you have examples of teams that just seem uncertain in their approach, including Tottenham and Manchester United.
Tottenham’s tactics have been understandably helter skelter due to Mauricio Pochettino’s firing, injuries to Harry Kane and Son Heung-min and the departures of strong passers like Kieran Trippier and Christian Eriksen, but Manchester United’s return of only five headed goals is more difficult to explain. The team’s desire to hit on the break is pronounced, but that ability to continuously put opponents under the cosh like City and Liverpool is just not there.
And while the Premier League is experiencing a historic low for headed goals, Europe’s other big leagues also fall beneath that 16 to 20 percent threshold.
Europe’s Top 4 Leagues (Headed Goals)
1. Bundesliga: 728 goals (3.25 per game), 116 from headers = 15.9%
2. Serie A: 746 goals (2.91 per game), 117 from headers = 15.6%
3. LaLiga: 685 goals (2.54 per game), 107 from headers = 15.6%
4. EPL: 784 goals (2.72 per game), 116 from headers = 13.6%
LaLiga has no players with more than three headed goals (Álvaro Morata is one of seven with three), but Serie A is paced by Edin Dzeko (five), Joao Pedro (four) and Stefano Okaka (four).
The Bundesliga has two players flying high this campaign: Union Berlin’s Sebastian Andersson (6’3’’) has six headed goals while Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski has five.
