No more talk of the title. Technically, the scudetto is not quite in the bag for Juventus, though it will almost assuredly head back to Turin for the seventh season in a row.
But after a few weeks of a Ross-and-Rachel style, will-they-won’t-they spluttering finale from Napoli, results have brought the title race to a close with two games left to play.
In these last few weeks of the season, however, there is still plenty to play for. The most interesting (and lucrative) prize on offer is the race for the Serie A Champions League spots.
So before we start gushing over Juve and mourning Napoli’s efforts, we should take a look at some teams who’s matches actually matter.
This year, the top four in Italy will once again qualify for the Champions League. Though that elusive fourth spot was snatched away by the Bundesliga in 2011 thanks to dwindling coefficient points, a ruling by FIFA has returned the berth in recent years.
Hence, from the 2018-19 Champions League season onwards, four teams will qualify from Britain, Spain, Germany and Italy, as well as special provisions being made for any team that happens to win the UCL or Europa League and not finish in the top four of their respective league.
It’s a pleasant change from the restrictive three spots Italy had endured in recent years, especially due to the fact that it means television revenue will be more evenly spread. Not only will a fourth team potentially enjoy a bounty, but Juventus’ share of the revenue is likely to be diminished, cutting their annual advantage, even if only slightly.
With Juventus so close to being crowned champion and Napoli enjoying one of its best-ever seasons (points-wise, at least), there are two spots available for other teams. Before the season began, there were talks of AC Milan challenging for this spot. But that has not come to pass. This year, there are three teams in this chase: Roma, Lazio and Inter.
The four Serie A Champions League spots will be decided by the final two matches of the season. Screenshot via ESPN.com.
All three sides have enjoyed a mixed season, combining incredibly high highs with remarkably low lows.
Lazio has perhaps been the most surprising. Few people expected much from Simone Inzaghi’s side. A Europa League spot, a possible victory over Roma. But, aside from its fans’ consistent stupidity, Lazio has managed to defy expectations at every turn.
Starting with the dramatic and late Suppercoppa victory over Juventus, we should have known early on that Lazio was putting together something very interesting. Few people could have predicted just how well Sergej Milinković-Savić would perform or that Ciro Immobile would have a career-best goal scoring season.
As a result, Milinković-Savić has moved himself into the upper echelons of transfer gossip, with the languid playmaker linked every other day with a $100 million move to a European super club. While Immobile’s tricky past seems to make buyers slightly wary, there’s a stability and an assuredness to Lazio which we haven’t seen in years. A huge amount of that is down to the manager.
Inzaghi has managed to make every player perform above expectations. From the lesser-known Lukaku brother at left back to the Liverpool castoffs Luis Alberto and Lucas Leiva. Everyone is performing at 10 percent beyond their expected level, elevating the team as a whole. It should be no surprise that the coach will be in demand come the summer.
Former Liverpool midfielder Lucas Leiva has Lazio within reach of a Serie A Champions League berth. Photo: @Coral | Twitter
For Inter, things have not been quite so stable. At first, it seemed as though Luciano Spalletti had managed to steady the famously jittery ship that is Internazionale. They put together a long unbeaten run, demanding that they be mentioned among the title contenders at the turn of the year. For a good few months, everything seemed so worryingly sensible.
Luckily for those of us who assume clubs have innate characteristics that are inescapably built into the foundations of their very existence, things went weirdly wrong for Inter. Over the winter months, it seemed as though they simply forgot how to play football. They dropped out of contention, first for the title and then for the top four.
Eventually, Spalletti managed to find a formula that worked. The introduction of Rafinha from Barcelona and the reintroduction of Brozovic to the team meant that they had balance once more. They started winning, eventually grinding through enough points and preying on their rivals slipping up that Inter is now in fifth place with a real chance of making the top four.
Roma’s season might have been the topsy-turviest of all. They’ve excelled in almost every part of the Champions League while performing pretty averagely in the league. Incredible games against Barca and Chelsea led them all the way to a semifinal on the highest stage, where they promptly played a ridiculously high line and were savaged by Liverpool’s pacey attackers.
The five-goal evisceration (before clawing two goals back) was still — somehow — not the final nail in their Champions League coffin. Despite the fact Liverpool managed to score another two goals in Rome, Eusebio di Francesco’s men managed to come within one goal of taking the tie to extra time. Mixed feelings abound.
Incredible highs, terrible lows.
Which leaves us in a strange position. Juventus and Roma will play one another next weekend, with each team needing a single point to secure their remaining targets — top four for Roma, scudetto for Juventus. A bore draw seems to be the sensible result.
Slightly back from Roma is Lazio in fourth place. They have to travel to relegation-threatened Crotone and try to take all three points against a team desperate for a win. Inter, meanwhile, has a home game against Sassuolo, a team with nothing to play for. Spalletti will be counting on this as a win.
Should both Inter and Lazio win their 37th game, we’re set up for a final-day showdown in Rome. Providing Roma has taken a point against either Juventus or Sassuolo, it’ll be a battle between the other two teams for the final spot. Essentially, we’ll have a play-off game for the Champions League spot.
Currently, Lazio is two points ahead. Depending on its result against Crotone, it could need a win or a draw to seal its position. Inter, if it wins its game against Sassuolo, will need to win. Final positions in Italy are settled on a head-to-head basis. The game earlier in the season was a draw, meaning that whoever wins on the final day will take everything.
It’s remarkably tight between these teams.
Roma, due to the fact that its chief rivals must play against one another (and thus one will assuredly drop points), are practically qualified. Indeed, at one point on Saturday evening, betting on the game against Juventus was suspended. Too many people, in all likelihood, were lumping on the same, mutually beneficial result.
So it comes down to Lazio and Inter.
Does one team deserve Champions League football more than the other? Not really. Lazio should be commended for its remarkable consistency, while Inter actually looked like credible title challengers at one point. There is the feeling that while Lazio is more dependable, it is Inter who has the higher ceiling and the greater potential.
Leading on from this, Inter would be a more fearsome name to appear in the draw next season. Even if they do not have the same cache as they did in their treble-winning season, there is a brand-awareness there that Lazio will struggle to match. Fewer teams will want to face Inter next year, regardless of the two teams’ actual qualities.
For Lazio, qualifying for the Champions League might mean it stands a better chance of keeping its talented team together. Many of their players will have suitors in the summer and many will be tempted with a move. A chance to play in the biggest competition, however, might encourage them to stay.
For Inter, qualification might mean more spending. At Inter, traditionally, the solution to everything is more spending. Even this year, in a nominally austere period, Inter still went out in the January window and made big signings. The recruitment of Lisandro López and Rafinha (even if only on loan) represent the kind of spending power few clubs in Italy could match. The money from the Champions League would add to this, for better or for worse, and would help them deal with their patchy FFP record in recent seasons.
There’s very little to separate the two teams. They would both benefit massively from the boosts to finances and reputation that playing in the Champions League would bring. Both are interesting projects and it would be fascinating to see how they fare against Europe’s best teams.
If one were to gamble on which side would make it, then Lazio would be the favorite. Providing both sides win their 37th game, the team from Rome would only need a draw to remain ahead. This would encourage Inter to chase the win, leaving it exposed on the break.
But Lazio may struggle to field its best XI. Injuries in recent weeks have robbed them of Luis Alberto and Ciro Immobile, putting a big dent in their attacking potency. Between them, these two players have scored nearly half of Lazio’s 85 goals. Right now, the albiceleste are limping across the finish line and the formbook makes for less-than-pretty reading.
Inter, on the other hand, is fresh from thrashing Udinese. They can also take heart from their remarkable defeat (with 10 men) to Juventus, when they ran the champions-elect to the very last minute, coming from a goal down to nearly win the game. Even travelling away to Lazio, they will believe that they have what it takes to finish ahead of their rivals. In the end, this belief might be all that’s needed to tip the scales in their favor.
At the moment, two points is all that separates the two teams. Even if the title race has been decided, we only need to look a few places down the table to see that the league is still ready to deliver thrills and spills. As Lazio and Inter (and Roma) battle for the final Serie A Champions League spots, there’s plenty left to get excited about.
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