On Saturday morning at 7:45 a.m. EST, our three-month long break from English Premier League football will be over as Manchester United takes on Swansea in the opening match of the season.
While this summer provided a wonderful World Cup (in addition to the standard drama of the transfer market), it's time to get down to business: the Barclays Premier League. And now this Footie Oracle must prognosticate about who will rise and who will fall during this campaign. If you do not like or agree with what follows, feel free to consult another gentleman here at The18. Perhaps you will fancy his predictions more than mine (I won’t take offense).
Although the relegation battle can often be more interesting than the battle for the title, we’re going to focus on the title contenders, or at least those that think they have a chance to compete for the title.
The Near Misses:
Tottenham Hotspur
Following a disappointing campaign that resulted in the sacking of not only Andre Villas-Boas, but also interim manager Tim Sherwood, Tottenham cleaned house after its sixth place finish. It recruited Mauricio Pochettino from Southampton and signed former Swansea players Ben Davies and Gylfi Sigurdsson in what can be generously described as a “modest” summer transfer window to date. It has battled frequent rumors that keeper Hugo Lloris may be moving away from the club, so it signed former Swansea keeper Michel Vorm as insurance. It will be interesting to see if this influx of Swans can dramatically improve the Spurs’ fortunes this season.
It will be a difficult task for the new manager to allay the concerns of the supporters in North London, as there are still lingering frustrations about how the money the club received for superstar Gareth Bale was spent during last summer’s transfer window. Although Christian Eriksen looks like an 11 million pound steal, splashing the cash on a bunch of a good players instead of one or two superstars has not provided the results the supporters were hoping for. And sadly, the American calvary is still a year away from arriving at White Hart Lane.
This Footie Oracle foresees another season of disappointment and rage on the north side of London for Spurs fans. While there are still two-plus weeks left in this transfer window and a full month in January for Spurs to fortify their squad, at present they simply lack the firepower to compete with the squads above them on this list. With a new manager in place, this looks like another season of transition towards the club that Tottenham hopes to be, but they’re not there yet. Come on you Spurs, keep your heads up.
If everything breaks well: The signings from last summer finally begin to show that they were worth the money and the club makes a run for Europa League qualification and/or a grab for silverware in the Capital One Cup.
If everything breaks bad: The ghost of Gareth Bale continues to haunt the Spurs and its players continue to disappoint, condemning Spurs to the dreaded mid-table - and yet another search for a manager.
Everton
Last season was a magical one for the little brother of the Liverpool-based football clubs. Under new manager Roberto Martinez, Everton made the most of a series of loans from European powerhouses and enjoyed excellent seasons from Gareth Barry, Romelu Lukaku, and Gerard Deulofeu among others. Everton finished 5th in the table and qualified for the Europa League for this season’s campaign, though the Thursday fixtures should tax the depth of Everton’s squad. For that reason, many Everton fans were hesitant about celebrating qualifying for what some have referred to as “the poisoned chalice” because of how Newcastle and Swansea (both smaller clubs) struggled in the league when they had to also compete in the Europa League. That said, in addition to the additional revenue and increased exposure on the continent, the competition can be a proving ground for some of the younger players on the squad that have never faced the pressure of a European competition. Martinez has vowed to take the competition seriously, so Everton fans will get to know all sorts of new cities in Eastern Europe this season.
Everton has a growing presence in this country as well, as fans of the U.S. Men’s National Team looking for a Premier League team have gravitated towards the club that employs U.S. keeper Tim Howard. As Howard’s star-power grew this summer following his incredible performance at the World Cup, his visibility has only benefitted his club. Hopefully his performance on the pitch will match the attention that he has garnered this summer off the pitch.
In an unusual foray into the transfer market, Everton secured the services of Barry and Lukaku (the latter through a £28 million transfer from Chelsea) full-time for this upcoming season. The previous season’s success combined with the summer spending has raised expectations for the Toffees’ supporters and they are daring to dream of their first Champions League qualification since 2005. They have been hurt before and, even last season, the last Champions League spot was theirs for the taking, but losses to Crystal Palace (at home no less) and Southampton broke their supporters’ hearts and left them in the 5th position.
So what will happen for the Toffees this season? This Footie Oracle sees another narrow miss on the Champions League prize that Everton is so desperately seeking. Once again it will have to look up the table at its cross-town rivals and will be wondering what might have been.
If everything breaks well: Lukaku breaks through showing Chelsea fans what might have been and the dream comes true when Everton qualifies for the Champions League.
If everything breaks bad: Another season of disappointment, as Everton slides past Tottenham and another upstart team and ends up mid-table. Newly-minted Everton fans in America get a harsh introduction to the pain of the Premier League.
Liverpool
Oh the Reds. You came so close last season to winning your first Premier League title (which is a ridiculous statement considering you won 18 First Division titles...but still), only to be derailed by a Steven Gerrard slip against Chelsea and a complete collapse at Crystal Palace that cost vital points.
Liverpool still had a chance entering the final day after these disasters, but could not overcome Manchester City and finished a strong 2nd. Manager Brendan Rodgers’s second season in charge was a wildly entertaining affair as the Reds simply could not be stopped offensively, nor could they stop anyone defensively. In the end it was their defensive liabilities that proved the difference and prevented them from hoisting the trophy. For Gerrard, a man who has won everything at the club level but the Premier League title, to come so close in a season that marked the 25th anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy, was agonizing to watch for supporters and neutrals alike.
The “S&S” combination of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge was electric for Liverpool last season, as the two combined for an incredible 52 goals, ranking 1-2 as the top scorers in the Premier League. Suarez, following his third…that’s right…THIRD incidence of biting another player on the pitch, finally moved on to Barcelona and his absence could be crippling to the Reds’ chances this campaign. Much like his teeth, Suarez’s play left an impression on Liverpool’s offense that will not easily be removed or forgotten. There will be a lot of pressure on Sturridge to pick up the slack in Suarez’s absence, but the most critical thing for him will be remaining on the pitch, as he has frequently battled nagging injuries that caused him to miss critical matches.
Liverpool did go shopping this summer and ransacked Southampton for Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert, Dejan Lovren and added Belgian World Cup Star Divock Origi up front, but there are questions about whether this collective can replace Suarez’s production. Best case scenario, this collective picks up the slack; worst case, Liverpool gets to re-live Tottenham’s nightmare about collecting 50 pence on the pound (see what I did there) for its superstar.
Liverpool has addressed last season's problems at the back by adding Lovren in the center, as well as Javier Manquillo and Alberto Moreno as fullbacks. The additions should certainly help prevent or at least limit the appalling defensive performances that were frequently on display, but the loss of Suarez means the improvement in defense will be balanced with a downgrade offensively.
The Footie Oracle sees Liverpool narrowly missing out on the vital 4th place spot that guarantees Champions League football for the next season. If the rumors about Radamel Falcao prove true, this prediction goes out the window, but at present, the defensive improvements will not be enough to overcome the loss of the Biter.
If everything breaks well: Sturridge emerges from Suarez’s shadow and wins the Golden Boot. The Southampton contingent gives Liverpool 80% of what Suarez did and the defensive improvements make marked different. Liverpool wins the League Title.
If everything breaks bad: Sturridge battles injuries and Liverpool lacks the punch up front and struggles to even qualify for the Europa League.
Champions League Qualifiers:
Manchester City
Last season, Manchester City won its 2nd title in 3 years following an up-and-down campaign in which they were only at the top of the table for what seemed like a very short period of time. But in the end, they surged past their rivals and hoisted the trophy in manager Manuel Pelligrini’s first season at the helm. City scored an incredible 102 league goals, good for second-best of all time in the Premier League, one short of Chelsea’s 2009-10 record.
It was a relatively quiet summer transfer window for City (by their standards), as UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) Rules prevented City from its usual major additions. City was penalized by UEFA for violating the FFP Rules, fined £49 million pounds and given squad restrictions for this season’s UEFA Champions League competition. In spite of the penalty, they added Arsenal defender Bacary Sagna on a free transfer, Brazilian midfielder Fernando and defender Eliaquim Mangala from FC Porto, and gentlemanly-named goalkeeper Willy Caballero from Malaga. O.K., so after reading that, maybe City wasn’t too concerned about FFP…
So why does the Footie Oracle see the defending champions, who lost no one of consequence and added those players, finishing 4th this season? Mostly due to the quality of the squads above it, but there is just something lacking about this squad that we can’t put our finger on. Perhaps it’s the uneven performances at the back, where City has struggled to find a central defender to partner with captain Vincent Kompany (enter Mangala) and where keeper Joe Hart struggled to keep his hands on anything, be it the ball or his job, last season. Star Sergio Agüero is also frequently injured and City looked like a completely different squad when he was not on the pitch. Additionally, after 2 titles in 3 years, might City be a bit complacent in terms of the league this season?
While it finally reached the knockout round of the Champions League last season, it has not had the type of success in that competition that its payroll warrants, so it would make sense for the club to shift its priorities to focus on that competition this season. Chelsea did that in the past and the year it won the Champions League, it finished sixth in the league. That said, City will be a strong squad and will take little solace from this 4th place finish, but admittedly, this is kind of its worst-case scenario.
If everything breaks well: The Footie Oracle doesn’t know what he’s talking about (don’t bet on that) and the offensive firepower from last season returns and City wins the league title.
If everything breaks bad: Agüero can’t stay healthy, Hart can’t stop anything, and the problems at the back linger into this season. It would need to be a truly disastrous campaign for City to not qualify for the Champions League, but uneven form and injuries could lead to a 5th place finish if Liverpool is especially strong.
Manchester United
Well, it was fun while it lasted. Unless you’re a Manchester City fan, last season ended in disappointment, but no matter how your preferred club fared last season, there was tremendous joy for non United-supporters in watching the Red Devils fall flat on their face over…and over again. Watching poor David Moyes look clueless on the sideline as each week clubs won for the first time at Old Trafford in decades provided an endless amount of joy and proved the truth of schadenfreude. Sadly, United put Moyes out of his misery and sacked him before the end of last season, hiring Holland manager Louis Van Gaal to take his place.
And now the schadenfreude ends. Van Gaal’s hiring will restore United to the ranks of Premier League title contenders this season. Van Gaal has won wherever he has gone, taking home top-flight titles for clubs in the Netherlands (Ajax), Spain (Barcelona) and Germany (Bayern Munich). He has not been hesitant about making changes to the squad, shipping out defenders Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic, and Patrice Evra, and seeming to favor a 3-5-2 formation in the preseason. The players have embraced what Van Gaal is preaching, as United has looked very impressive in its preseason friendlies (I mean they won the Guinness International Champion’s Cup people!). Newly-appointed captain Wayne Rooney has looked extremely impressive and last season’s big winter signing Juan Mata has been finally allowed to play in the #10 role that he favors and has been flourishing this preseason.
United went on a spending spree of its own this summer, adding youngster Luke Shaw from Southampton (is ANYONE left on Southampton??) and midfielder Ander Herrera from Atletico Bilbao. As United still is chasing help on the back end, it may not be done spending yet and the last few weeks of August could lead to United adding more players to its squad.
With a plethora of attacking options up front (Rooney, Mata, Robin Van Persie), United should have no trouble scoring goals. The issue for United will be on the back end. The 3 players Van Gaal seems to favor on the back end at the moment (Phil Jones, Chris Smalling, Johnny Evans) have been inconsistent throughout their Premier League careers, so if a team can fight its way through United’s 5-man midfield, those gentlemen could be hard-pressed to provide the necessary cover and could leak goals.
This will be a season of redemption at Old Trafford and Van Gaal will prove to be a noticeable improvement over his predecessor. Though they will have an advantage over rivals in that they will have no European football to contend with to tax their squad (much as Liverpool had that advantage last season), the Red Devils will still not have enough to win the title.
If everything breaks well: The players are energized by Van Gaal’s tactics and hair and make a run at the Premier League Title.
If everything breaks bad: Too many problems at the back and United disastrously fails to qualify for the Champions League again. Non-United fans rejoice.
Arsenal
After going 9 years without a trophy, Arsene Wenger’s lads have scooped up 2 trophies in the last two competitive matches they played, the FA Cup Final and the Community Shield (well, 3 trophies in 3 matches if you include Arsene’s beloved 4th place trophy). After sitting atop the Premier League table for a good portion of last season, Arsenal ran into a dry spell not-coincidentally surrounding a rash of injuries to its key players, including Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, and Mesut Ozil. Those players are all now back fit, plus Chilean star Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona) and defender Mathieu Debuchy (Newcastle) have been brought into the fold, raising Arsenal fan’s expectations about the coming campaign. Additionally, winger Theo Walcott has almost recovered from the ACL injury that kept him out for a majority of last season and will be returning to the lineup at the end of the month. His ability to terrorize the flanks gives Arsenal yet another attacking option that it lacked last season.
Arsenal excelled last season against the middle and bottom-tier clubs in the Premier League, but struggled (to put it mildly) against the top contenders, including some very visible beat-downs against Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea away from the Emirates. It seems impossible that Arsenal could be nearly that bad against the top clubs again this season (right?), so grabbing a few of those points it was unable to get last year could prove the difference between merely qualifying for the Champions League and winning the title.
The one thing that Arsenal fans always lord over fans over club teams (especially Chelsea fans) is the beautiful way that they play football. And while it has not translated to trophies over the last 9 years, it is hard to argue with their point: when Arsenal is on its game, they’re breathtaking to watch.
Legendary English manager Brian Clough (the man at the center of “The Damned United”) once referred to the “champagne effect” that can be seen in clubs that have experienced success: namely, that it begets further success down the road once the players have had the taste of the champagne sprayed in victory. Recently, Manchester City’s victory in the FA Cup in 2011 was followed by its first league title in 43 years. Arsenal supporters are certainly hopeful that the Gooners will follow a similar trajectory to City during this campaign.
The only thing that Arsenal currently lacks is a world-class finisher up-front. The addition of Sanchez will help and Olivier Giroud is a solid striker…but he’s not world-class. Who will be the man that steps up to score the winner against a top club when Arsenal needs it in the final minutes? Perhaps one of those two gentlemen can do it, but the Footie Oracle is not convinced. And it will be that deficiency that costs Arsenal the title.
If everything breaks well: The Champagne Effect proves true and Arsenal lifts its first Premier League title since 2003-04. Wenger spends considerable amount of time drinking champagne with one hand and flipping off his critics with the other.
If everything breaks bad: Arsenal’s struggles against the top clubs continue and with each loss, Wenger’s critics gain a bit more strength to insist he’s not the man for the job. Arsenal looks in danger of missing out on the Champions League altogether before rallying for the 4th place trophy. Piers Morgan’s head finally explodes in frustration (so…not all bad).
Champion:
Chelsea
Full disclosure: I am a Chelsea fan. Therefore, you might be telling yourself, “of course he picked Chelsea to win the league, what a homer!” My response to that is: how dare you, how dare you impugn my integrity by insinuating the Footie Oracle would pick what he WANTS to happen rather than what he believes will happen. If this were the 19th Century South, a duel would be in order. Get the seconds at the ready.
Chelsea had an interesting campaign in 2013-14, in that they dominated the top clubs, taking 6 points from Manchester City, 6 points from Liverpool and 4 points from Arsenal, while suffering a home loss to lowly Sunderland (Jose Mourinho’s first home loss as Chelsea manager) and away losses to Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. These losses cost Mourinho’s Chelsea the Premier League Title in the Special One’s much-heralded return to the club. Throughout the season, Mourinho told everyone that would listen (and those that tried not to) that his club was not a true contender for the title, calling them the “little horse” in the race for the championship. Ultimately, he was proved correct once again as their inconsistency and inability to score when it mattered proved to be their undoing.
The main area of complaint for Chelsea throughout last season was their strikers, as the combination of Demba Ba, Samuel Eto’o, and Fernando Torres turned in a performance that could generously be described as mediocre. Mourinho went shopping this summer to fix that problem, signing Spanish striker Diego Costa away from Atlético Madrid. Costa has impressed in the preseason and could be the dominant force up front that Chelsea have lacked since Didier Drogba departed for China following the club’s 2012 Champions League victory. The club also recalled keeper Thibaut Courtois from loan duty at Atlético and signed left back Filipe Luis away from them, so it is clear that Chelsea was very impressed with Atlético knocking them out of the Champions League last season in the semifinals, as it has pilfered 3 of its starters. Chelsea also signed Cesc Fabregas from Barcelona to take Frank Lampard’s place in the creative midfield.
The reason the Footie Oracle sees Chelsea as the club to beat this season is that defensively, Chelsea was very strong last season. John Terry, perhaps taking advantage of having sold his soul to the Devil, enjoyed a renaissance last season under Mourinho and his partnership with fellow Englishman Gary Cahill was one of the best central defender combinations in the Premier League last season. With Luis providing an upgrade at left back, Chelsea’s defense should be just as stingy as always, and the additions of Costa and Fabregas should make a marked difference up front when combined with Oscar and Eden Hazard.
While fans of rival clubs claim that the Special One is no longer so Special, the performances that he coaxed out of Chelsea last season demonstrate otherwise. Finally equipped with the finisher up front that he needs, Mourinho will get the job done this season. Get ready for this celebration!
If everything breaks well: Costa is an instant star and provides the quality finisher that Chelsea has lacked, while the defense is as stingy as always. Chelsea wins its third Premier League title under Jose Mourinhho.
If everything breaks bad: Costa struggles to adapt to the Premier League (which happens fairly frequently) and once again, Chelsea lacks the finishing power to keep up with its rivals. Its defense should keep it in the Champions League, but another season without a trophy could test Roman Abramovich’s patience.
The Premier League season begins this Saturday, August 16th. All matches can be found on NBC Sports, check your listings for which matches will be televised. It has returned people. And now you are ready for it.
Follow Mike Smith on Twitter @thefootiegent
(Feel free to tell him how wrong he is about these predictions. Don’t bother waiting until the end of the season to do so.)
