Bloomberg Sports is pretty confident it knows the answer to a question 32 nations and billions of soccer fans are asking right about now: Who will win World Cup 2014?
And, unlike your annoying friend who says the same thing, Bloomberg seems to have the statistical firepower to back up its claim. Through its StatsInsights platform, BSports has simulated each of the 64 matches that will be played in Brazil this summer over 100,000 times to provide an accurate projection for every outcome. This means that before a single, actual match has been played, BSports has run 6.4 million+ computer simulations and boiled this wealth of data down to a single bracket that will be a source of elation for some, and a wellspring of despair for many others:
Bloomberg Sports ran millions of simulations to determine what many fans have already guessed: Brazil is pretty likely to win this year's World Cup (Photo: Bloomberg Sports | bsports.com)
The bad news? Apparently the USMNT has little hope of advancing beyond its first round "Group of Death," with Ghana suffering the same fate while Germany and Portugal both advance. In fact, Bloomberg's predictions don't have a single CONCACAF team other than Mexico advancing past the first round of the tournament.
Meanwhile, World Cup favorites Brazil, Spain, Germany and Argentina make their steady (and, based on this analysis, seemingly inevitable) march through the ranks to meet in the semifinals. The fact is, this bracket lacks in any major surprises. After all, surely we didn't need 6 million match simulations to tell us that Brazil and 2010 champion Spain have a darn good chance to meet in the finals. (Brazilians and fairweather fans alike will take joy in the projected 1-0 victory for the host nation.)
This analysis has the quality of a spoiler to which we all already knew the answer. In this way, it probably leaves most sports fans a little cold. While the hard fact may be that Brazil really is that good, and that European football teams like Germany and Spain play the most polished form of the game in the world, the average sports fan takes delight in the exception to the rule rather than the rule itself. The most memorable moments in sports for most of us involve the underdog and that occasion when we realize, even if just for a moment, extraordinary feats are for the ordinary among us as well. (Case in point, the USA's shocking 1-0 victory over England in the 1950 World Cup, which – when it first came over the wire – was interpreted by English journalists as a mistake, the correct score being 10-0 England of course.)
So, here at The18, we'll be holding out hope (perhaps against all odds) for the kinds of flukes and statistical anomolies that make watching the World Cup such a thrilling experience, no matter who ultimately takes home the Cup.
