As the United States Men’s National Team prepares for its all-important clash with Mexico on Oct. 10 with a spot in the 2017 Confederations Cup up for grabs, one pressing question must be asked: who really deserves to be the starting goalkeeper when these two CONCACAF rivals square off in Pasadena? Guzan vs Howard?
“Deserves” can be a tricky term, one that brings up a sense of entitlement and ideas of right versus wrong. In 2015, the USMNT has belonged to Brad Guzan. He has started every meaningful game for Jurgen Klinsmann so far this year while Tim Howard was away on sabbatical following the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Many say that Guzan deserves the starting spot against Mexico because consistency is key, and he brought the Yanks into this position. Others say that Klinsmann must put his emotions aside and make the logical choice by giving the starting job for such a crucial match to Howard. Why? Just ask Belgium.
Perhaps the point is moot. Jurgen Klinsmann has already come out and stated that Brad Guzan will be the #1 vs. Mexico. All signs seem to point to this being the truth, rather than Klinsmann mind games. But is Klinsmann making the right decision? He is the one that has put so much stock into qualifying for the Confederations Cup in Russia because of the crucial experience it gives his squad before the World Cup. Klinsmann’s goal for 2015 was to avoid a one-game playoff with Mexico altogether by winning the 2015 Gold Cup this past summer, which the United States hosted. However, that plan was derailed by a spirited Jamaica squad that pulled off the upset in Atlanta.
While Jurgen Klinsmann has said Guzan will see the start, does his track record versus Tim Howard's really warrant this confidence? (Photo: @ShelaineWood | Twitter)
So here we are: a winner-take-all match against your most heated rival. As the head coach, do you remain loyal to Guzan? Or, knowing that a loss will mean a firestorm of criticism and possibly your dismissal, do you go back to Howard?
Guzan vs Howard: Breaking It Down By The Numbers
Let’s take a look at the numbers for Guzan and Howard with their Premier League clubs, Aston Villa and Everton respectively, in three seasons: 2013-14 leading up to the World Cup in Brazil, 2014-15 following the World Cup, and the beginning of the 2015-16 season which provides a lens for each keeper’s current form.
2013-14: Brad Guzan started all 38 matches for Aston Villa, conceding 61 goals for an average of 1.7 goals per game. Tim Howard started 37 matches for Everton, allowing 37 goals, or exactly 1 per game. At the end of the season, Howard’s Everton finished in 5th place while Guzan’s Aston Villa puttered to 15th in the table.
2014-15: This began Howard’s sabbatical away from the USMNT following his heroics vs. Belgium in the World Cup round of 16. While battling some injuries, Howard started 32 games for Everton, conceding 44 goals at a rate of 1.3 per match. Meanwhile, Guzan started 34 games for Villa allowing 48 goals, with a rate of 1.4 per game. Everton finished the campaign in 11th, while Aston Villa narrowly avoided relegation, winding up in 17th.
2015-2016: Form is everything in soccer, so perhaps this current season carries extra weight. Both men have started all seven games for their respective clubs. Guzan has allowed 12 goals to Howard’s seven. Everton are currently sitting in the table’s fifth spot, while Aston Villa are in the danger zone, currently 18th. Furthermore, the Premier League uses the EA Sports Player Performance Index (PPI) to rank and compare players in the top flight on six criteria, three of which are particularly important to our debate: winning performance, player’s performance per match, and clean sheets. According to the PPI, Tim Howard is currently the third best goalkeeper in the league and Guzan is 13th out of 20.
So with a spot in the 2017 Confederations Cup, and possibly your job, on the line, who would you choose to start against Mexico? Guzan vs Howard?
