England’s showpiece club soccer fixture will finally feature a heavyweight matchup. Each year the inevitable questions arise regarding whether or not the FA Cup has lost its magic, but the argument can be made that the tournament has seen too much magic as of late.
Since 2008, there has only been one final featuring two of the nation’s perennial powerhouses. Instead, clubs like Portsmouth, Cardiff, Stoke, Wigan, Hull and Aston Villa have all snuck into the final. Watching a Cinderella make a run can be extremely exciting and rewarding, but when it happens too often it leaves fans with a primal urge unfulfilled, an urge to watch two of England’s biggest teams, both in top form, meet in the final game of the season with silverware on the line.
This year, that is exactly what the fans will be treated to when Arsenal and Chelsea clash on Saturday. They London giants meet at Wembley Stadium boasting England's the two best records over the past two months with the Gunners having won eight of their last nine and Chelsea nine of their last 10.
Chelsea Manager Antonio Conte has tried to take some of the pressure off of his team by deeming Arsenal to be the favorites, despite the Blues finishing 18 points ahead of the Gunners in the league. However, with sports books offering nearly 3 to 1 returns on bets for Arsenal to win, they decidedly the underdog. In order for the Gunners to pull off the upset and win their third FA Cup in four seasons, there are five keys to the match that must go their way.
1) Arsene Wenger's Tactics
When Laurent Koscielny picked up perhaps the dumbest red card of Premier League season 14 minutes into Arsenal's final game against Everton, the captain hurt his team in several ways.
He Jeopardized Arsenal's chances of Champions League soccer, as Arsenal were still in line to finish in the top four when he was sent off, forced his teammates to exert extra energy playing with 10 men for 75 minutes the game before the FA Cup final and left his manager with a defensive crisis for the final against Chelsea due to his mandatory suspension and an injury to fellow center back Gabriel later in the contest.
With Koscielny suspended, Gabriel injured and Mustafi sick, Wenger may not have enough fit center backs to play his newly preffered 3-4-2-1 formation, and may have to revert to the 4-2-3-1 system the team played with for most of the past decade.
Personnel-wise, on the right side, Oxlade-Chamberlain had taken Hector Bellerin's starting role as of late, but with the Englishman set to return after a multi-game injury layoff he will be at less than full fitness, while Bellerin has regained his form since Chamberlain's injury. On the left, Wenger will have to decide whether or not he can trust Kieran Gibbs, who has largely been a bench player this year, to play the wing back role so that Nacho Monreal can move into the center of defense.
Centrally, he must decide if he can risk starting Per Mertesaker, who has only played 15 minutes of football all season due to injury. As ever, the manager faces the persistent question up top of whether or not to start Olivier Giroud, but looks set to give the striker role to Danny Welbeck for this match.
As questions swirl for Wenger and Arsenal, Chelsea's formation and personnel look to be set in stone, with the only question being whether Pedro or Willian will start at right wing behind Costa.
2) Chelsea's Ability to Flip the Switch
Despite a brief scare after losing to Crystal Palace on April 1st that allowed Tottenham to close the gap to four points, Chelsea have essentially had the league title wrapped up for months and enjoyed a procession to the finish line while Arsenal has been playing pressure packed games for the past two months. Arsenal will be desperate to win what could be Wenger's final game as manager in order to salvage their season and restore some pride to North London after a tumultuous year.
Chelsea meanwhile has overachieved this year and could be forgiven for resting on their laurels of winning the Premier League by seven points.
Therefore, whether or not they can flip the proverbial switch and match Arsenal's level of intensity will be a deciding factor in the match. Chelsea boss Antonio Conte acknowledge how difficult this may be for Chelsea by claiming Arsenal to be favorites and called on his players to find the "right fire in their soul and hearts." Arsenal will be hoping to ride their recent wave of wins and adrenalin for one more game and that Chelsea will have one foot on the beach for vacation already.
3) Aaron Ramsey
Ramsey's name hasn't been mentioned much this year as injuries, as they often have, have hampered the Welshman's season. He has scored only three goals this term but his playing time has increased and he has looked increasingly dangerous in Wenger's new system when paired with Granit Xhaka in the midfield. Recently, Ramsey broke a lengthy scoreless streak with a beautiful goal in stoppage time against Everton for his third strike of the season.
It was a moment that had been coming as his industry to go from box to box while Xhaka sits as a deep lying playmaker had nearly paid dividends for Arsenal during several games of their recent winning run. Surely Chelsea will be focused mostly on stopping Arsenal's two stars, Ozil and Sanchez, which makes Ramsey an unlikely X-factor for the final.
Arsenal will need Ramsey to be at his best and may need a goal or assist from the midfielder with the Chelsea defense focused elsewhere to lift the trophy on Saturday.
4) Wembley Stadium
In their two meetings this season, Arsenal and Chelsea each battered the other when enjoying the comforts of their home field, which begs the question of who will benefit most from playing at Wembley Stadium, a neutral ground. Both teams have sterling records at Wembley, with Arsenal having won 77 percent of their games there compared to Chelsea’s 66 percent.
The Gunners are riding a 6 game winning streak at England’s largest stadium, and have won in every possible circumstance — close games, blowouts, extra time, and penalty kicks. Wembley boasts a large field that allows a creative side like Arsenal more time on the ball and limits the opportunity for a more powerful squad like Chelsea to dictate play with their physicality.
Arsenal routinely face criticism for their home ground lacking atmosphere, due in large part to expensive tickets bringing in more corporate based spectators who dilute the passion of the average fan in the stadium. However, the club’s fans travel extremely well and make their presence felt at every away ground in Europe.
At Wembley, Arsenal typically enjoys the advantage over their opponent of the stadium being only miles away from their home ground, but that is also the case for Chelsea. With the teams each receiving 28,000 tickets (approximately 1/3 of the capacity) Arsenal will be relying on the remaining 1/3 predominantly wearing red and white. They can do so confidently because they are believed to have more supporters than Chelsea both globally and in London.
Beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge has been next to impossible this year, so Arsenal can take solace in the fact that the fixture will be held at neutral ground, a ground where they feel at home.
5) The Soccer Gods
Granted, Arsenal is in good form and was able to overwhelm Chelsea 3-0 at the Emirates in September without needing any divine intervention, but the sense amongst fans and prognosticators leading up to Saturday’s final is that if there is a blowout, it will be in Chelsea’s favor. If the Gunners are to win, it will likely be by a narrow margin and they very well may need the soccer Gods’ approval, which could manifest itself in any number of ways.
Perhaps Petr Cech, who has contrived to concede goals on the last 16 penalty kicks he’s faced, will finally save a spot kick. Maybe referee Anthony Taylor will spot the initial provocation from Diego Costa instead of the seemingly inevitable retaliation from the Arsenal defense and discipline Costa instead. Possibly the woodwork could save Arsenal like it did against Manchester City in the semi-final.
With the odds decidedly against them, having the fickle Soccer Gods on their sides could level the field for the Gunners and allow them to ultimately prevail.
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